Joseph Campbell's "Mythos"

It's a truism that looking at the future and even the present means examining the past. Luckily Joseph Campbell's Mythos series examines the storytelling of the past--the creation scenarios so crucial to every culture large or small--in 10 episodes that the Montgomery County Public Library has on DVD. ... Gotta go pop some popcorn.

Behind the Curve

I've had fun thinking Very Advanced Thoughts about military applications of robotic technology, particularly with biomimetic design of individuals and flocking-and-schooling algorithms for groups.

What I've really been thinking are Laughably Behind the Curve Thoughts, though, judging from a set of videos by German robotics developer Festo: penguins of the water and air, rays, and jellyfish.

Incidentally, biomimetic design isn't the exclusive province of German scientists; check out this bit of footage of robot fish schooling at the University of Washington.

Pickets' Charge

IN WHICH UAVs TRICKLE DOWN TO NON-STATE ACTORS, THEN BACK UP TO ROGUE STATES.


Advances in UAV technology among non-state actors—from California farmers to Hezbollah to Silicon Valley writers—imply the tiny unmanned planes will also see greater use by large companies that need cheap ways to peek over the horizon from their operations.

Internationally, commercial shippers and offshore oil rigs are logical users of commercial UAVs. Both types of businesses are capital-intensive and vulnerable to human threats, and the cost of UAV-based surveillance and defense is small relative to the replacement value of company facilities and employees.

It’s not hard to imagine that blue-water freighters and offshore drilling rigs may soon deploy their own pickets—screens of UAVs that extend their hosts’ alertness and increase warning times in trouble-prone waters. Since UAVs are on their way to becoming fully automatic (particularly since they’ve long performed complex tasks such as crossing the Atlantic on their own), it’s reasonable to expect they might also be programmed to work with one another closely.

However, these concepts can also translate to offense, as this next scenario posits.

Assumptions: By 2015, rogue states mimic Western advances in UAVs and robotics.

Scenario: The South Korean Navy P-3 banked slowly over the crippled freighter. At this distance the P-3’s pilot could easily read the name painted in big white letters near the ship’s bow: MV Maersk Global.

The massive container ship appeared much as its crew had warned it would be, and the P-3’s radio operator started relaying his observations back to the plane’s base at Pohang Airport.

Pohang, Recon One Four here. Target ship is in sight below us in calm seas. Hull appears undamaged. No crew on deck and pilothouse is empty. Burn marks, possibly from small explosions, at several points along decks. Pilothouse window appears blown in and there are burn marks on superstructure nearby, over.

The reply came instantly, since many high-ranking officials were monitoring the P-3’s mission.

Recon One Four, Pohang. Acknowledged. Continue.

The pilot swung around for a pass over the ship’s rear as the radioman continued his assessment.

Pohang, Recon One Four. Blast marks around rudder and possible damage. Screws are not turning and ship is adrift, over.

Recon One Four’s pilot mused that the decks were clear and the ship adrift for good reason: Thirty hours ago the crew had barricaded themselves belowdecks to ride out an attack by a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles.

Yesterday morning, the Global’s crew was startled to see about 10 prop-driven UAVs flying around their ship. Since their ship was in international waters east of North Korea, the crew assumed the small planes had somehow strayed from an exercise by Pyongyang.

Still, the Global’s navigator triple-checked their location, confirming that the ship was well away from North Korean territory. In fact, it was on almost exactly the same line from Vladivostok to Pusan that it had traveled a dozen times before, always without incident.

So for the next 10 minutes, the crew treated the buzzing UAVs as an interesting nuisance—until the small aircraft turned out to be armed. Crewmen reported later that the UAVs fired a few small but potent missiles at the deck, causing the sailors to scatter. The UAVs then specifically targeted the ship’s rudder, damaging it so that it was stuck in a shallow left turn.

Once the crew realized they had no defenses and couldn't steer, they’d idled the ship’s engines, locked themselves below, and called for help. They would have happily surrendered to human attackers, but none appeared.

Nearly blind, the crew had no idea whether the UAVs were still present and no taste for finding out, considering that some of them had suffered minor burns and one apparently had some light hearing damage.

In the day or so since then, the Global had drifted westward and now was just about in North Korean waters.

The Maersk company quickly persuaded Danish diplomats to contact the North Korean government, which denied knowledge of any incident and any UAVs. Although multiple countries were ready to blame Pyongyang anyway, none of them had monitored any transmissions to or from the UAVs. The aircraft certainly communicated with each other—they had coordinated an attack—but seemingly not with anyone else.

Yes, it was difficult to blame Pyongyang, which also professed outrage that someone had attacked a peaceful commercial vessel so near its territory. To the world’s great surprise, North Korea told Denmark that it would allow anyone into the North’s waters to aid the Global—South Koreans, Americans, whoever the Danes thought might help.

Unfortunately, the North said, since the rescue might be hazardous—UAVs had attacked a freighter, and who knew where they might strike next? The North had to protect its own coast in case they reappeared!—Pyongyang’s own navy would stand off and observe while other nations aided the Global.

And that was how a South Korean P-3 came to be loitering, unmolested, over a giant, abandoned-looking Danish container ship in North Korean seas.

Recon One Four, Pohang. Global crew ask that you verify no UAVs in the area.

Pohang, Recon One Four, that’s affirmative, no UAVs or other aircraft in target’s area. We are alone, over.

The pilot looked down again moments later to see two Global crewmen peering cautiously from behind a heavy-looking hatch that opened out from the superstructure. They waved, and the pilot waggled the P-3’s wings to acknowledge them.

It was remarkable, the P-3’s pilot thought: Zombie aircraft had created a zombie freighter.


Policy Issues: In one stroke, Pyongyang broadcasts that its technological prowess has jumped and that its coast is off limits, all at minimal cost in manpower or political capital.

Tactical Issues: How do you handle attribution in the above case? What countermeasures can a civilian ship’s crew take to defeat the UAVs? Must commercial ships begin to carry their own UAVs for safety? Are dueling automated UAVs a possibility in the next 10 years?

Technical Issues: In the animal kingdom, swarming, flocking and schooling are governed by simple algorithms that regulate an animal’s speed, course, and distance from its peers and other objects. What algorithms would enable aggressive yet useful swarming by UAVs? Can targets employ countermeasures that disrupt those swarms, fooling them into “believing” they are too close together, too close to a target, or acting too aggressively?

Fictional References: The late Michael Crichton’s Prey, which deals with ludicrously advanced swarming, learning nanobots.