Upcoming Scenarios

For the past few weeks I’ve been periodically creating scenarios based on my reading of “Wired for War,” P.W. Singer’s book on the escalating use of robotic devices in warfare.

If the increasingly lethal, increasingly autonomous machines that Singer describes take the field—self-directing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), demining robots, tracked devices armed with rifles or rockets, small submersibles—they’ll change not just combat operations but the risks and opportunities policymakers face.

I chose to illustrate some of these challenges through scenarios, which may let readers quickly grasp how a new technology may cause a certain kind of future where simply describing that technology might not.

For example, today’s UAVs already make many decisions on their own, constantly adjusting their speed, direction, trim and angle of attack to remain airborne, while humans handle executive-level decisions about targeting and weapons use. The scenario I’ll publish in a few days, “The Too-Smart Bomb,” deals with the tactical and strategic consequences of using UAVs that are just slightly smaller and more independent than today’s.

I’m currently working on five other scenarios that deal with a backlash against face-scanning technology, slow robots that replace fast explosions as terrorists’ weapons of choice, high-speed urban mapping by the military, “magic” bullets that audit themselves, and cruise missiles that can interrogate pirates. Stay tuned for these and “The Too-Smart Bomb” in a few days.